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Episode 769: Rich Hill, Jerry Dipoto, and David Ortiz
Date November 18, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam discuss the Rich Hill signing and more Mike Trout punctuation, then answer listener emails about Jerry Dipoto and David Ortiz and do a double Play Index. Topics * Jerry Dipoto referencing WAR * Trading David Ortiz before his retirement tour * High pitch count starts * High defensive WAR players * Worst 36-game stretches Intro The Silhouettes, "Get a Job" Outro Talking Heads, "Found a Job" Banter * Ben is now working for FiveThirtyEight. * Rich Hill signed a 1-year $6 million deal with the Oakland Athletics. Sam wonders whether Hill's past is in his favor or not. * Episode 763 follow-up: Mike Trout did not have space before the punctuation in his most recent tweet. One listener wrote in with an example demonstrating that maybe Trout just prefers the look of it. Email Questions * Mark: "What did you guys make of hearing Jerry Dipoto reference Leonys Martin's WAR when talking about him on the conference call announcing the trade? On one hand you could make a case that it was a great step for WAR since it might be the first time it was referenced publicly by a GM to validate a trade. On the other, it might leave you wondering as it left one of my colleagues why your GM was referencing Baseball Reference's WAR when teams supposedly have their proprietary WARs that we hear about that are supposed to be better than what is publicly available. Personally I thought it was great but I suppose some might be wondering as my colleague was." * Scott: "Ken Rosenthal announcing that the Marlins may trade Jose Fernandez on the same day that David Ortiz announces 2016 will be his final year leads me to this hypothetical. Would the Red Sox trade David Ortiz straight up for Jose Fernandez? From a projected WAR standpoint only of course, Fernandez is projected to outperform Ortiz. But what would it take for Boston's front office to deal this potential Hall of Famer after he announced a retirement tour?" * Matt (Maryland): "I am a diehard Orioles fan and I'm tired of the Orioles never getting credit for one of the most amazing performances in the history of baseball, or at least since the start of the 20th century. Specifically, on August 23rd, 2002 the Orioles came from behind to beat the Blue Jays 11-7 to improve their season record to 63-63. I was at the game, it was great. We had battled back to .500 and we were going to compete for the playoffs. What happened over the rest of the season was historical...ly bad! The O's went 4-32 the rest of the way to finish at 67-95. Amazing! I mean it has to be one of the greatest accomplishments in baseball history, right? I did some digging a while back and couldn't find any bad team that went 4-32 during any 36 game stretch, let alone 4-32 starting from a .500 record to close out a season. I looked at some likely culprits such as the 1962 Mets, the 1941 Phillies or '42 Phillies and I didn't see a 4-32 stretch for any of them. Even the 1988 Orioles, who started out 0-21, were 5-31 after 36 games. My questions are: Is my hunch correct that no AL or NL team other than the 2002 Orioles has ever gone 4-32 or worse in a 36 game stretch, or played to a lower winning percentage over a long stretch? If I am correct, is this not a stretch of baseball incompetence that deserves a great deal of recognition? Could it be that the 1988 Orioles, with their 5-31 start to the season, are the closest to 4-32 that any team has ever come to reaching it?" Play Index * In 2015 there were only 6 games where the starting pitcher threw 125 pitches or more. 2011 was the last time a single pitcher (Justin Verlander) had at least 6 starters in a single season with 125 pitches or more. * In 1989 Nolan Ryan had 19 starts where he threw 125 or more pitches. * Sam also looks at players who, like Andrelton Simmons, had negative offensive WAR but positive defensive WAR. * Inspired by Matt's email, Ben looks up the worst 36 game stretches for all franchises. * The 1916 A's had a 2-34 stretch. The 1996 Detroit Tigers also had a 4-32 stretch and the 2012 Houston Astros. Notes * Sam predicts Rich Hill will throw 84 innings in 2016 with a 3.39 ERA. Ben says he will throw 130 innings with a 3.8 ERA. In 2016 Hill threw 110 1/3 innings with a 2.12 ERA. * Ben has Rich Hill's cell phone number but Hill has not responded to text messages from Ben. * Sam says that David Ortiz's retirement tour will be "the full Chipper". Links * Effectively Wild Episode 769: Rich Hill, Jerry Dipoto, and David Ortiz Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes